The Numbers Don’t Lie (But Sometimes We Do)

I was recently chatting with an entrepreneur who had a bold vision: bringing affordable housing to a rural part of our state. The idea was solid. He'd identified a real problem and was actively working on a solution. But as we got deeper into the conversation, I asked him a question that made him pause:

"Have you ever lost money on a project?"

Not just paper losses or missed opportunities—real money. The kind that leaves you lying awake at night, wondering what you could have done differently.

Then I asked: "Have you ever had things go sideways and wished you’d built in a bigger buffer?"

It's tempting when you're doing cash flow projections to shave down the reserves, to make the numbers look just a little more appealing—especially if you're pitching investors or trying to get buy-in. But unless you have a secret stash of money or magic funding you can pull out at the last second, don’t do it. You’re not doing yourself—or anyone else—a favor.

Whether you're an investor, entrepreneur, or just trying to stay afloat, one thing’s for sure: existing is expensive. And pretending otherwise only sets us up for pain.

I also encouraged him to look beyond the spreadsheet. What’s happening at the state level? The federal level? Are there programs, grants, or policy changes that could help—or hurt—you?

One example that hit close to home: I was representing a house for sale and thrilled when a young family put it under contract. They had a pre-qualification letter. Everything looked great… until interest rates jumped. Suddenly, they couldn’t afford the house. Just like that, their buying power vanished. And I was left with another month of carrying costs, holding onto a property I thought was sold.

This is the cycle. It’s fragile. It’s real. And it’s why we need to stay aware, adapt quickly, and build in margin.

If you’re building something—anything—do the math. Then do it again. Add a buffer.

Know what’s happening around you. And align yourself with others who are paying attention, too.

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If you're navigating the complexities of entrepreneurship, investing, or simply trying to make informed decisions in today's volatile market, I'm here to help. Whether it's discussing financial projections, understanding policy impacts, or strategizing for resilience, let's have a conversation tailored to your needs.

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